Monday, January 3, 2011

Measuring Portfolio Performance

The performance of a portfolio has to be measured periodically – preferably once a month. The performance of the individual will have to be compared against the overall performance of the market as indicated by various indices such as the Sensex or Nifty. This way a relative comparison of performance can be developed.
Lets now learn to compute the “Total Yield”. For example if the portfolio value of Mr. X is Rs 2,00,000 at the beginning of this month. During the month he added Rs 8000 to the fund. During this month he also received a dividend income of Rs 1000. Assuming the value of the portfolio at the end of this month is Rs 2,20,000.
The total yield will be = ((220000 – (2,00,000 + 9000)) / ( 2,00,000 + (1/2 * 9000)) ) *100 = 5.38% per month
To elaborate, in the numerator we are trying to find out the increase in value of portfolio after deducting the extra amount of Rs 8000 and the income of Rs 1000. It is assumed that this sum of Rs 9000 is put to use somewhere in the middle of the month and hence only half of Rs 9000 is added to the value of the fund at the beginning. The denominator can be adjusted as per the amount that you reinvest (part or fully) out of dividend income and what point of time during the period do you actually plough back such part of the money.
Beta Factor “Beta” indicates the proportion of the yield of a portfolio to the yield of the entire market (as indicated by some index). If there is an increase in the yield of the market, the yield of the individual portfolio may also go up. If the index goes up by 1.5% and the yield of your portfolio goes up by 0.9%, the beta is 0.9/1.5 i.e 0.6. in other words, beta indicates that for every 1 % increase in the market yield, the yield of the portfolio goes up by 0.6%. High beta shares do move higher than the market when the market rises and the yield of the fund declines more than the yield of the market when the market falls. In the Indian context a beta of 1.2% is considered very bullish.
You can be indifferent to market swings if you know your stocks well. Or you can put your portfolio into neutral or bias for the upside if you're bullish or a little for the downside if you're bearish. One way to do that is to have a mix of stocks that have certain betas in your portfolio. When investors are bullish on the market, they like to have high beta stocks in their portfolios because if they're right, then their stocks go up faster than the market in general, and their performance is better than the market. If investors are bearish on the market, then they use the low beta or negative beta stocks because their portfolios will go down less than the market and their performance will be better than the general market. And if they want to be neutral, they can then make sure that they have stocks with a beta of 1 or develop a portfolio that has stocks with betas greater than 1 and less than 1 so that they have the whole portfolio with an average beta of 1.
A beta for a stock is derived from historical data. This means it has no predictive value for the future, but it does show that if the stock continues to have the same price patterns relative to the market in general as it has in the past, you've got a way of knowing how your portfolio will perform in relation to the market. And with a portfolio with an average beta of 1, you can create your own index fund since you'll move more or less in tandem with the market.

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